Some Math and Economics Related to Race and Education

The Supreme Court recently ruled that race could not be used in determining admissions at colleges and universities. The case pitted the values of diversity and righting past injustices against the value of equal treatment for individuals in equal circumstances.

Rather than discuss how to balance those values, I offer observations about the ruling’s implications and an alternative approach to improve educational opportunities for those from historically disadvantaged groups. Given that changing the status quo is always difficult, focusing attention where political effort yields the largest benefits makes sense.

Princeton sociologist Thomas Espenshade estimated between 10,000 and 15,000 Black and Hispanic students enroll in selective colleges on account of race-conscious policies. That is one percent of all Black and Hispanic 18-year-olds. Like most white students, most Black and Hispanic students enroll in colleges and universities that have essentially open admissions.Dr, Erik Craft

Just as the University of Texas at Austin guarantees admission for graduates in the top 10% of one’s class for Texans, many other colleges and universities around the country will provide similar opportunities, vitiating the effect of the recent Supreme Court ruling.

It would appear that only a portion of a small number of minority students will be directly affected by the ruling. Some students admitted to Harvard and Carleton will instead attend places like the University of Richmond and the University of Michigan. And some of the students at the latter schools will attend the Luthers and Southern Methodist Universities of the nation. And some of the students at the latter schools will attend nonselective colleges.

A valid concern is that reduced attendance at elite colleges and universities by students from historically disadvantaged groups will slow progress in narrowing earnings gaps between racial groups. Helpfully, labor economists have studied the earnings effect of attending an elite college or university.