When the minimum wage goes up, community college enrollment goes down. But the students who leave may not have been that likely to stick around anyway. That’s the topline finding of a new study released by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
It makes sense that changes in the minimum wage would affect community college students. According to the research, which was led by Dr. Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach, director and faculty fellow of the Institute for Policy Research at Northwestern University, 55% of community college students are employed. And those students are likely to work for relatively low wages: 27% earn $10 per hour or less and 59% earn $12 or less.
Dr. Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach, director and faculty fellow of the Institute for Policy Research at Northwestern University
Following an 8% or greater change in the minimum wage, two-year enrollment across all institutions dropped by 4.6%. The decline persisted for the next five years. Part-time enrollees were down by 6.1% and full-timers by 2.4%. There was no significant effect on enrollment at 4-year colleges.
The findings fit with a well-established countercyclical pattern in community college enrollment: that when the economy is strong, students go to work, and that when the economy is weak, students go back to school.
Dr. Frank Harris III, co-director of the Community College Equity Assessment Lab at San Diego State University, isn't surprised by the finding.
“When I think about the profile of a student who’s attending community college part time, they’re more likely to be working adults, they’re more likely to have family commitments, so, every dollar per hour counts,” he said. “If my family needs to eat now, if I have rent to pay now, that increased minimum wage makes the decision of whether to work clearer.”
Although these decisions may make sense for students in the short-term, Harris was concerned about their prospects further out.
“You take this job now that's going to give you a little bump in income, but by not going to school, do you lock yourself into this wage?” he said. “We know that these [minimum] wages never ever keep up with the cost of living. I worry about what it means for two or three years out, especially for students who tend to be underserved. Those are the students who have the most to gain from community college.”
However, Dr. Carrie B. Kisker, a director of the Center for the Study of Community Colleges, sees it differently. She said that a majority of community college students enroll for upskilling or retraining, rather than in pursuit of a degree, and that many community college students who stop out eventually return. She also points to the second part of the study’s results: that the students who remained were still getting their credentials.
Schanzenbach and her team found no change in completion rates associated with minimum wage increases. They attribute this to the profile of the students who were leaving: more likely to be part-time and less likely to wind up earning a credential overall. The study describes them as “weakly attached to post-secondary attainment.”
Dr. Frank Harris III, co-director of the Community College Equity Assessment Lab at San Diego State University
“I would say that those students are the one who are not being well-served by the institution,” he said. “These might be students who are having a hard time accessing campus resources, or who have a hard time accessing the institution because of transportation, or who don’t have good experiences with the educators.”
For Harris, the study highlights a need for stronger partnerships between the workforce and community colleges that would allow students to stay in school while earning livable wages. Kisker said that the research could allow schools and policymakers to plan for future minimum wage increases and not panic due to decreased enrollment, which could affect funding.
“I don’t want to see us going into hysteria every time this happens, because it’s affecting community college funding and they look, all of a sudden, like they’re not performing or that they’re failing the students who are coming,” Kisker said.
Ultimately, she said, students are going to make whatever choice they perceive is best for themselves, and the job of community colleges is to be there for them regardless.
“Our role as educators is to make opportunity available to any student, regardless of their age,” she said. “And to provide support systems that will not only help them persist while they’re there, but if they choose to stop out and enter the job market for a time, welcome them back.”
Jon Edelman can be reached at [email protected]
